For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 1 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Jaguars at Dolphins (-3): I love picking the Dolphins in early season home games, because opposing teams struggle with the unforgiving Miami heat and humidity in September. This year it might not seem to be as big an advantage against a team that is also used to the heat, from Jacksonville. Except… the Dolphins’ sideline is in the shade, and the opponents’ sideline is in the sun, shown here.
It’s going to be 91º on Sunday, which if you know Miami heat is like 110º in Philly. #Science. I don’t love this overrated Dolphins team, but give me the Dolphins.
Jets at 49ers (-4): The Niners had terrible vibes all offseason, but I’m surprised this line is this low. They had 11 double-digit wins last season, and they have absolutely owned the now 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers over the years.
• Picks against the spread: Dolphins (-3), Steelers (+3.5), Bills (-6.5), Colts (+3), Cowboys (+2.5), 49ers (-4).
• 2024 season, straight up: 0-0 (0.000)
• 2024 season, ATS: 0-0 (0.000)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 9 years, ATS: 395-339-19 (0.537)
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