No sooner had soon-to-be U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans outlined what drives him in public office — his faith, the U.S. Constitution and the needs of his constituents — than a reporter coyly asked him during a post-election news conference Monday when he planned to start fundraising for his 2026 reelection campaign.
While delivered with a smile, the question was deadly serious in a congressional district with such an even partisan split that anything could happen to knock the future incumbent off kilter two years from now, as just happened to Democratic first-term Rep. Yadira Caraveo. Chief among those potentially destabilizing forces is that a fellow Republican will be in the White House — a reliable drag on GOP members of Congress during midterm elections.
“Midterm elections play worse for the party that controls the White House,” said Mike Dino, a Democratic political analyst. “When you get to the midterms, there’s going to be some fatigue. 2026 is going to be all about (Donald) Trump.”
And in a state that has shown overwhelming distaste for the president-elect over the last three election cycles — including last Tuesday — that could be enough to turn Evans into a one-term congressman, Dino said.
The potential of a short stint in Congress was the furthest thing from Evans’ mind Monday as he spoke in front of a scrum of reporters and TV cameras crowded into a room at his Thornton campaign headquarters.
The latest results have Evans, a Republican, winning last week’s election for the 8th Congressional District by fewer than 2,600 votes after five days of ballot counting, with a smattering of ballots remaining.
“I am so excited. This is the honor of a lifetime to be able to represent this district in Congress — to be your voice, to continue the fight to make us a safe, affordable place to live, to work, to raise families. To achieve that American dream that we all love, that we all know and that we all treasure,” said Evans, who entered the congressional race as a freshman state representative.
His victory, cemented Sunday when Caraveo conceded defeat to the Army vet and former Arvada police officer, brings Colorado’s congressional delegation to an even 4-4 partisan split for the next two years. That’s despite Democrats having strong majorities in the General Assembly and holding all statewide offices.
“In many ways, this was a tremendous victory for Colorado Republicans, and for balance and for dialogue in the state,” Evans said. “This is probably one of the — if not the — biggest race in Colorado since 2014, when (Republican) Cory Gardner flipped a U.S. Senate race,” unseating Democratic Sen. Mark Udall.
Colorado’s 8th District, the state’s newest congressional district, stretches from Denver’s northern suburbs to Greeley in Weld County. Created during the 2021 redistricting process, it was designed to be an evenly split swing district.
Caraveo barely won it two years ago against her Republican opponent.
Erin Covey, the House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, called the district “one of the best Republican pick-up opportunities in the country.” As the state’s most heavily Latino district, and with Hispanic voters having gone for Trump on Tuesday more than they ever have — though a majority still voted for the Democratic nominee — the tailwinds from that shift may have been a boost to Evans.
“Working-class Latinos are moving toward Republicans,” Covey said. “Gabe was in a good position to take advantage of that trend.”
But the extent to which that national trend was a factor in the 8th District was unclear. Last week, an exit poll of Latino voters in Colorado found that they didn’t move away from Democrats much here — though there was a significant shift in the Caraveo-Evans race. Pollster Gabe Sanchez, of BSP Research, chalked it up more to the fact that both candidates this time were Latino.
Immigration and the economy, dominant themes across the country in this year’s election, played in Evans’ favor, Covey said. Those issues drowned out abortion rights — a reliable rallying cry for Democrats — as the key issues on voters’ minds.
“The fact that abortion is protected in Colorado, I think voters knew that and it may have made them less willing to have it be their No. 1 issue,” she said.
On Monday, Evans made it clear that his focus on immigration, especially the controversial call by Trump to carry out mass deportations of people in the country illegally when he takes office in January, is more tempered than the president-elect’s. His first moves, he said, will be to secure the border and deport migrants convicted of crimes.
“After we’ve got those priorities done, then we can absolutely continue to have that conversation about what do we do with the millions of folks who are present illegally in the United States but who aren’t committing crimes — and who aren’t really causing massive problems in our society,” Evans said.
Evans said the first bill he planned to work on in Congress after being sworn in would allow local police departments to more closely cooperate with federal immigration authorities in dealing with migrants charged with crimes. Colorado lawmakers have placed restrictions on such arrangements in recent years, drawing lawsuits from Douglas and El Paso counties.
As of Monday afternoon, Evans’ victory was set to give Republicans 215 seats in the House to the Democrats’ 204, according to the Associated Press, which still had not called the race. The GOP needs 218 seats to keep its majority, and several tight races across the country remained unresolved.
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