As I wrote this summer, I don’t like Trump’s plans to implement onerous tariffs on imports, trash the dollar, bash the Federal Reserve and cut back on labor supply by deporting workers en masse, even if they came here illegally. There’s a substantial risk those moves will reignite inflation and slow the economy.
Perhaps Trump can make it all work out in the sequencing, first cutting taxes to spur growth that would be fast enough to absorb the braking effects of tariffs and deportations. Stock investors think he and his team are up to it, while the bond market is skeptical.
Democrats’ blind spot is growth, with many in the party unwilling to acknowledge the importance of business and increasing wealth.
Trump’s blind spot is labor. He doesn’t see that the nation’s population growth is slowing, births have plunged and the overall workforce is under pressure from the retirements of baby boomers. And that may be because of race. At least some of his backers are angry that population growth is mainly coming from people of color.
Trump’s running mate JD Vance often says millions of Americans are waiting to enter the workforce once illegal immigrants leave it. It was Gov. Tim Walz, in the Oct. 1 vice presidential debate against Vance, who said businesses tell him they need more workers, not fewer.
“When I go to businesses, sure, they’ll talk about taxes sometimes. But they will lead with child care and they will lead with housing, because we know the problem is, especially in a state like Minnesota, we need more workers,” Walz said. “Because our economy is growing, but we need the workforce.”
