Pac-12 bowl projections: CU Buffs to the Holiday and a note on the process

In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls that have been affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.

The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.

Please note: We also unveil our weekly CFP picks each Monday.

The stretch run to an unprecedented college football season is fast approaching, with all the accompanying conjecture, debate and tribal messaging. Before we plunge into the latest Hotline projections for Pac-12 bowl bids, a few essential reminders:

— Bowl invitations will be extended hours after the 12-team CFP field is announced.

— The selection process for Pac-12 bowls mirrors that of previous seasons, with one exception: Overall record, not conference record, will determine the order of teams.

— The plus-one rule remains in place. Team B can leapfrog Team A in the selection process as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in record. If Colorado finishes 7-5, for example, the Buffaloes could jump a team that’s 8-4 but not a team that’s 9-3. And with coach Deion Sanders’ star power, the Buffs will be a hot commodity if they are eligible.

To the projections …

(Remaining opponents are listed in chronological order.)

College Football Playoff

Team: Oregon (Big Ten champion)

Schedule: vs. Illinois, at Michigan, vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington

Comment: The Ducks (7-0) are the closest thing to a CFP lock that exists across the landscape — partly because of their undefeated record and conquest of Ohio State and partly because the upcoming schedule is stocked with mediocre opponents.

Alamo Bowl

Team: Washington State

Schedule: at San Diego State, vs. Utah State, at New Mexico, at Oregon State, vs. Wyoming

Comment: The Cougars (6-1) have a schedule built for stacking wins and distancing themselves from the teams (Colorado, USC) that could jump them in the selection process. If WSU reaches the 11-win mark, which is plenty realistic, it should receive the school’s first invitation to the Alamo Bowl since the days of Mike Leach and Gardner Minshew.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Colorado

Schedule: vs. Cincinnati, at Texas Tech, vs. Utah, at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State

Comment: It’s far easier than expected to envision the Buffaloes (5-2) rolling through the stretch run and winning nine games, if not 10. But this being the Big 12, where mayhem is king, it’s nearly as easy to see them stumbling multiple times and finishing 7-5.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: USC

Schedule: vs. Rutgers, at Washington, vs. Nebraska, at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame

Sun Bowl

Team: Arizona State

Schedule: at Oklahoma State, vs. UCF, at Kansas State, vs. BYU, at Arizona

Comment: The Sun Devils (5-2) are on the brink of an unlikely bowl berth, but the final victory might be more difficult than the previous five combined if quarterback Sam Leavitt isn’t healthy, the kicking game doesn’t improve and the schedule is as rugged as we foresee.

LA Bowl

Team: Washington

Schedule: at Indiana, vs. USC, at Penn State, vs. UCLA, at Oregon

Comment: The Huskies (4-3) appear to have caught a major break with the injury to Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke. If they win in Bloomington, then a victory over one of the L.A. schools would be enough to secure a bowl berth, leaving the trips to Eugene and State College free of postseason pressure.

Independence Bowl

Team: Arizona

Schedule: vs. West Virginia, at UCF, vs. Houston, at TCU, vs. Arizona State

Comment: The season’s trajectory has taken an unimaginably bad turn for the Wildcats (3-4), but here’s the good news: There are three wins available on the stretch-run schedule, and they don’t need to play at an elite level to secure them. They just need to be competent.