Nuggets Journal: Can Nikola Jokic defy expectations and narratives enough to win 4th MVP?

The more MVP trophies an NBA player possesses, the more improbable it becomes that he will secure another.

Whether it’s fair or not, that tends to be the reality. It was undoubtedly among the reasons Nikola Jokic wasn’t the most popular preseason pick to win the award in 2024-25, despite having monopolized it the last four years.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic have maintained a firm lead in betting odds. Part of that has to do with projected team success. Whereas the Nuggets stumbled out of the gate after a divisive offseason, Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder started the season 7-0 before Denver spoiled the win streak Wednesday. Doncic’s Mavericks wield the benefit of the doubt as defending Western Conference champions — a competitive edge that belonged to Jokic last season.

But the advantage he lacks is the amount of space available in the trophy case. SGA and Doncic have plenty of room. The Nuggets’ center is facing a shortage of it.

And still, the three-time MVP is making himself impossible to ignore.

“We’ve got the best player on the planet on our team,” teammate Russell Westbrook, a former MVP himself, said this week.

Two weeks into the season — yes, it’s still the overreaction portion of the program, so feel free to roll your eyes as you read on — the early forecast is that Jokic might just be transcendent enough to turn the next MVP vote into a referendum on his historical cachet. He was averaging both a triple-double and a career-high in scoring through eight games: 28.8 points (No. 4 in the league), 13.5 rebounds (No. 1) and 11 assists (No. 1).

“Nikola always averages a triple-double,” DeAndre Jordan said, shrugging. “We talk about that (crap) after the game (in the locker room), and they say, ‘Nikola, 30-point triple-double.’ When I first got here, I was like, ‘Yeah, let’s go!’ And then after a while, it just kind of is like, ‘All right, well, that’s what he does.’ I think we take it for granted because we see it all the time, but it’s not normal.”

Jokic is already on a list of nine players in NBA history who’ve won the award three times. The club shrinks to five players once a fourth coronation is added: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, LeBron James and Wilt Chamberlain.

If there is no obvious MVP come April, will the 100 voters (disclaimer: I am one of them) deem Jokic worthy of that company? Or will there be deference to a candidate who might be considered safer, in order to give someone else their due and side-step the topic of Jokic’s all-time greatness? Does it make sense that a new face should win it this season simply on the basis that to share the wealth is to portray the league’s current parity-filled era accurately?

These are all lofty, philosophical ways of pondering an MVP race. But in theory, they shouldn’t be all that relevant. The most valuable basketball player any given season should win the most valuable player award, regardless of past years or narrative-based ramifications. But the NBA community is nothing if not obsessed with mythologizing individual greatness, and so this will always be an inescapable topic.

There’s very much a world in which Jokic is an obvious winner again by the end of the season. The Nuggets got off to an uneven start, relying on him perhaps more than ever to squeak out last-second wins. As of Thursday, he was averaging 114 touches per game — 14 more than the league runner-up and 13 more than his own league-leading number last season.

Six of Denver’s first eight games involved situations considered “clutch time,” when the margin is five points or fewer in the last five minutes of regulation or overtime. In 28.3 clutch-time minutes during that stretch, Jokic amassed 29 points, 10 rebounds and six assists on 8-of-15 shooting. He has led the team to a plus-27 during those minutes — the defining reason for Denver’s 5-3 record despite relying on young bench players in the closing lineup.

“He’s gonna make the right basketball play nine times out of 10,” Julian Strawther said of sharing the floor with Jokic. “The 10th time, he’s gonna go get a bucket himself anyway.”

During those first eight games, the Nuggets’ net rating with Jokic on the court was 30.1 points per 100 possessions better than with him off it.

The Nuggets started the season with a 7-for-39 outing from 3-point range, prompting Jokic to label them “not a good shooting team.” The next game, he made 7 of 12 attempts beyond the arc in a 40-point effort. He is 51.4% on his 3-point attempts this season.

“It seems like he gets better every year,” Christian Braun said. “I don’t know that — he definitely improved, but he can do whatever you need. So this year, he sees that we need to hit more 3s. Seems like he’s taking more 3s.”

Jokic was also one of 29 players in the league averaging 1.5 or more steals per game as of Thursday, an illumination of his foresight and quick hands. He left Minnesota with his opponents in awe of his ability to yell out one of their plays in advance last week.