Republican operatives in Michigan have signaled optimism about the party’s prospects in the state despite reports the GOP’s ground game has fallen behind its Democratic rivals just weeks before the election.
“I am very optimistic about Michigan… in terms of the ground game, I’ve never seen this type of ground game in Michigan for a long time,” Michigan GOP Chair Pete Hoekstra told Fox News Digital.
The comment comes as the election enters the critical homestretch, with the state of Michigan being at the center of not only the presidential race but also control of both the House and Senate.
Polls show a razor tight race on the presidential side, with former President Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by just one point as of Wednesday, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average. According to the Fox News Power Rankings, the race remains a tossup.
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Former President Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Calhoun Ranch, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024, in Coachella, California. (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)
The Senate race in the state between former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., and Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., has also tightened significantly in recent weeks, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows, with Slotkin’s lead of 5.1 points on Sept. 23 falling to just 2.7 points as of Wednesday. According to the Fox News Power rankings, the seat currently is in the “Lean Democrat” category.
Meanwhile, Michigan features two House races that are rated as “toss ups” by the Cook Political Report; the 7th Congressional District battle between former Democratic state Sen. Curtis Hertel and former Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett, and the 8th District race between Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican businessman Paul Junge.
But some have begun to question the Republican ground game in the state despite its importance to the ultimate outcome of the election, including a Politico report at the end of September that declared some within the GOP were starting to “raise alarms” about the Trump campaign’s operation.
“They are out-matching us in money, in enthusiasm and in the ground game,” one Michigan-based GOP strategist, who was granted anonymity, told the outlet.
GOP opponents in the state have made similar observations, with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Aiden Johnson noting that Republicans have outsourced much of their campaign ground work.
“Republicans’ decision to outsource their field operation to a billionaire sycophant has left them with an unmitigated disaster,” Johnson told Fox News Digital. “Michigan Democrats have had dedicated organizers on the ground for over a year, actively persuading voters and mobilizing record turnout. It’s not hyperbole to say organizing wins elections.”
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at the Williams Arena at Minges Coliseum on the campus of East Carolina University on Oct. 13, 2024, in Greenville, North Carolina. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Hoekstra, however, disagreed, telling Fox News Digital he sees the outside organization help as just one pillar in an overall winning strategy.
“You’ve got Trump Force 47, they’re going after a specific targeted bloc of voters. You’ve got the Musk PAC, they’re going after a different set. You’ve got county parties and the state party going after a different set of folks. And when you put it all together, I think multiple individuals are going to be contacted by multiple different groups… I think it’s a strength,” Hoekstra said.
Republican operatives working in the field echoed Hoekstra’s sentiment, telling Fox News Digital that the party’s operation in the state is better than it’s ever been, pointing to Republican efforts to turn out low-propensity voters and the robust base of volunteers behind that effort.
“They can’t see the forest through the trees,” one GOP operative, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, told Fox News Digital of some within the party who have expressed worry about the GOP operation in Michigan.
“Your typical hardline Republican is not seeing these field efforts, they’re not having people go to their door, simply because we are chasing these lower-propensity Republican voters and these swing voters that we can win over,” the source added, noting that this effort is similar for down ballot races in the state as well.
Jason Roe, a GOP strategist working with the Barrett campaign, told Fox News Digital that the cooperation between the Trump campaign, down ballot campaigns, RNC and outside organizations has been robust, something that he believes is helping drive results in the state.
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“When you look at the totality of all the organizations, we’ve got a lot more bodies out there working than we have had in a long time,” Roe said.
Roe said much of the GOP effort at this point has been “chasing absentee ballots,” arguing that doing so has allowed operatives on the ground the ability to target lower-propensity voters to get out and vote for Republican candidates.
“I think there is a more qualitative approach to how campaigns are doing it than in the past, which was more quantitative, when Election Day voting was way more important than absentee voting,” he said, adding that in the past “it was about knocking on the most doors, and now it’s very targeted on the most important doors where we can bank votes now.”
Former President Trump gestures at a campaign rally at the Findlay Toyota Arena on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Prescott Valley, Arizona. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Another GOP source on the ground in Michigan, speaking to Fox News Digital anonymously, echoed a similar sentiment, noting the cooperation between the Rogers and Trump campaigns.
“The Rogers campaign and Trump campaign have teamed up and are crushing doors, including 40,000 on this past Saturday alone,” the source said. “It’s a massive, professional and volunteer effort and I’m not concerned about the ground at all. Democrats? Haven’t really seen them aside from press releases.”
Another GOP operative who spoke to Fox News Digital anonymously also touted the way all facets of the Republican effort have worked together, noting that Michigan “is a battleground at all levels.”
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“It’s a must-win state on the presidential race, has its highly competitive Senate race, and is ground zero for House Republicans to grow their majority in Congress,” the operative said. “Republicans up and down the ballot have deployed a very robust grassroots program to get out the vote in all corners of the battleground, and we’re seeing voter enthusiasm like never before.”
Added all up, Hoekstra believes Republicans have the ground game in Michigan to win.
“People are all energized, they know what we are fighting for, and what we need to do to win,” Hoekstra said. “It is one massive effort, chasing votes.”
