The U.S. added 12,000 jobs and the jobless rate stayed flat at 4.1 percent in October, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department, upending a string of strong economic data leading into Election Day.
Economists were bracing for a sharp drop in job gains in October thanks to several large strikes — including the ongoing walkout of more than 30,000 Boeing machinists — and the impacts of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
The sharp decline in job gains was caused in part by “severe damage” from the hurricanes and their timing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Friday.
Hurricane Helene made landfall shortly before BLS began surveying households and businesses for the jobs report, and Hurricane Milton hit Florida amid the survey period.
BLS said it was unable to calculate how many jobs the hurricanes and strikes took away from total October jobs gains.
“It is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes,” BLS wrote.
“However, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events.”
Even so, the report still came in well below the expectations of forecasters, who projected the U.S. to add roughly 115,000 jobs.
BLS also revised the August and September job gains down by a total of 112,000 jobs, another sign of a potential slowdown in the labor market.
“Markets can likely park the October jobs report to the side. Quite clearly, the hurricane has taken a heavy toll on the numbers, clouding the picture of labor market strength,” wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in an analysis.
“And yet, a deeper ponder of the numbers suggests that, beneath all the noise and disruption, is a fundamentally slowing labor market,” she continued, calling the report a “significant downside surprise.”
The new jobs data comes with less than a week until Election Day and after millions of Americans have already cast their ballots.
Vice President Harris and former President Trump appear to be locked in a tight race for the White House, with polls showing no clear favorite to succeed President Biden.
The economy has ranked among the top issues for voters since the beginning of Biden’s term, which brought both a rapid recovery from the COVID-19 recession and high inflation.
Harris has sought to highlight the record-breaking bounce back from the recession during the Biden administration, along with the economy’s strength in the face of constant recession fears.
Trump, however, has maintained a steady lead over Harris among voters when it comes to who is trusted more to handle the economy. He and GOP lawmakers have sought to blame Biden and Harris for rapid inflation seen earlier in his term, though price increases have since dropped back toward historic norms.
The unexpectedly weak jobs report could give Trump a new line of attack against Harris and Democrats, though some experts said the October jobs data is too windblown to truly reflect the economy to voters and investors.
“Trying to understand October’s labor situation from this jobs report, distorted by two major hurricanes and a major strike, is like trying to get directions from the GPS on a smashed cell phone,” wrote Robert Frick, chief corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in a Friday analysis.
“Best to trash this report and wait for a more accurate reading next month now that the weather’s cleared.”
Updated at 9:09 a.m. EDT
