If the next president slaps new tariffs on imports from other countries, those trading partners will likely retaliate with their own tariffs that could cost the U.S. billions in lost agriculture exports.
That’s according to a recent analysis from North Dakota State University (NDSU) researchers who looked ahead at the possibility of a trade war to come based largely on former President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals. In a “worst-case scenario” that targets China with the highest tariffs, soybean exports could drop 67% — or more than $15 billion — since China is the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans.
Farmers in Minnesota could see soy exports fall by more than $1.3 billion and corn exports drop by $400 million as a result, with ripple effects across farm country.
“A substantial decline in exports, as projected under these scenarios, would lead to an oversupply in domestic markets, driving down farm prices and squeezing profit margins for farmers,” while potentially putting some out of business, the report concluded. “To cushion the blow to Midwest agriculture effectively, a new support program would require massive funding to cover the lost export revenue, potentially amounting to tens of billions of dollars annually.”
Bottom line: No matter the severity of any protectionist policies that a new administration actually implements, “in any trade conflict, agriculture is always on the losing side of things,” said Sandro Steinbach, director for agricultural policy and trade studies at NDSU and a co-author of the report.
While tariffs might help some industries, no scenario Steinbach looked at would boost ag.
