Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and Chair of Obama’s CEA lectures people on how well off they are…
You might be thinking this is another Mish satirical fiction post, but it’s not. Here are some ideas to ponder by Jason Furman.
It’s the Media’s Fault
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“The macroeconomy is strong–high growth, low unemployment, falling inflation–the best of any advanced economy. But there was a reluctance to present/understand how families were still not out of the deep inflation hole. And too much masked by cherrypicking/misleading stats.”
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“Selective amplification has been rife. How many times did you see a chart of US GDP exceeding other G7 economies?”
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“Cherrypicking also rife.”
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“Most wage data shows that wages have, indeed, risen more than prices. BUT, most wage series show that it was well below trend but the few that showed above trend amplified much more often to the exclusion of showing other measures.”
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“Or the endless repeating of that graph w/ the increase in spending on manufacturing structures (often shown nominal, ignoring the big price increase) as a sign of a manuf resurgence when other manuf investment was down, manuf employment down & prodn flat.” [Mish Note – I never once saw that chart and if I didn’t, who did?]
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“Yes people suffer from money illusion (thinking they deserve their raises but price increases happen to them).”
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“Yes, many problems were amplified by misleading media and partisanship.”
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“I don’t pretend to know what message politicians should use. Maybe Harris should have bragged more about how great everything was by using selective data. Maybe she should have been more negative. I really don’t know.”
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[Mish comment: Gee, I wonder if lying about the economy on top of lawfare, calling Trump a fascist, and pretending to support fracking while saying she could not think of anything she would have done differently than Biden, would have helped. Then again perhaps telling people they were better off than the average person in Germany may have worked. I really don’t know.]
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“A lot of horrendous right-wing misinformation out there.” [Mish comment, note the irony of that statement vs the previous two bullet points.]
Reflections on Academic Wonderland
Academic clowns sit in their ivory towers telling people how good they should feel. On top of that they blame the media.
If I posted a chart of GDP of the US vs Europe, who the heck would have seen it other than those in academic wonderland, stock market investors, and a select few of us on Twitter?
More to the point, the idea is idiotic. The average person does not give a damn if US GDP is better than Europe. Only those in wonderland would concoct such a construct.
And seriously, has anyone here seen the “endless repeating” of the chart of manufacturing that Furman refers to?
Furman proves how much out of touch academia is with the lives of ordinary people.
Here’s Your Money Illusion
Hello Jim Bianco, please give Jason Furman a call.
Blaming the Media for Amplification
Blaming the media is an amazing hoot of its own. Hell yes, everything was amplified, about 15-1 against Trump.
The media repeated every charge of racism, lawfare (without calling it lawfare), and finally, things accelerated so much we had Obama and Biden calling Trump a Nazi and a fascist.
Wage Revisions
Real hourly compensation fell 4.2 percent in 2022. And it fell a revised 0.2 percent in 2023.
Damn that BLS Productivity Report.
That report was out yesterday. So, Furman believed things were better in 2023 than they were. But people didn’t. It’s “money illusion” says Furman.
Professor, can we discuss the real world instead of your illusion?
The Brookings Institute Wonders Why Consumer Sentiment is So Bad
The Brookings Institute is right there with Furman. It called low consumer sentiment a paradox.
I gave a helping hand to the Brookings Institute.
Dear Brookings, Here’s Your Paradox
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The Immigrant Crime Spree is Real, Not Imaginary
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Negative 818,000 job revisions
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Job openings crash
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Full Time Employment: -1,000,600 from a year ago
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Total employment: only +216,000 from a year ago
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Excluding government, year-over-year employment is negative for the last 9 consecutive months
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Non-agricultural employment excluding government peaked in August of 2023 at 138.026 million and is now 137.240 million, down 786,000 since the peak.
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The unemployment rate is up 0.7 percent from the low at a pace that strongly suggests recession.
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Home prices are up 49 percent in less than five years to new record highs.
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A $150,000 house in 1988 now costs $707,500.
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The mortgage rate is back above 7 percent.
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The share of first-time buyers of existing homes is at a record low.
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Even if you have a home, what about flood insurance, fire insurance, and car insurance.
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The Fed’s Beige Book looks very recessionary
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The immigrant crime spree is real. The FBI lied about the crime rate dropping.
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Evictions are at record highs in many states and might be everywhere were it not for eviction moratoriums.
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Tens of millions of people want to buy a home but can’t afford one and a different set of tens of millions of people are trapped in their homes but won’t because of mortgage rates.
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A Bank of America survey shows over 40 percent of the nation is living paycheck to paycheck.
Please consider The Brookings Institute Wonders Why Consumer Sentiment is So Bad, I Can Help
In my post, I offer 10 charts and many links that I challenge Furman and The Brookings Institute to refute.
Please click on the above link, and give it a crack. Tell me and my readers why GDP and warm fluffy thoughts would have mattered more than my allegedly cherrypicked data.
Citing GDP, the stock market, CEO confidence, and even increased air travel (things the average Joe does not give a damn about), the Brookings Institute could not figure out why sentiment is in the gutter.
I am pleased to report Jason Furman has figured this out.
It’s the Media!
In academic wonderland, if we do not tell people they are losing money to inflation, then they wouldn’t know.
And then they would have voted for Harris. And that’s why she lost.
Silly Me
I thought that 40% of the nation living paycheck-to-paycheck mattered. I thought negative year-over-year employment for the last nine months, except for government, mattered.
I thought that millions of people trapped in their homes unable to move, somehow mattered. And I thought millions of other people unable to buy a home (but let’s not call that inflation) mattered.
For more of my thoughts, please see Why Trump Won the Election in One Clear Picture
Please check it out and tell me where I went wrong.
Bottom line, Furman nailed it.
Harris lost because of the media. If only we would have told people they were better off than they were, people would have believed it.
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