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The country, and perhaps much of the world, will watch the U.S. presidential election returns on Tuesday with bated breath, though it appears unlikely that a winner will be determined that night, or even by the next Tuesday. So while we wait, here are four issues to ponder.
Ever since the first Gallup survey of voter intentions in 1936, polls have captivated the attention of voters and the media as a leading indicator of electoral outcomes. However, the predictive accuracy of polls has recently come into question for three reasons. First, the issue of nonresponse bias is a significant concern since those responding to polls may not be representative of the population at large. Second, random digit dialing (RDD) in the era of mobile phones frequently connects (if they connect at all) with a voter who has moved to another state but has retained the area code associated with her state of origin. Third, pollsters who recognize the need to correct for polling errors have taken to weighting their polls with the respondents past voting behavior, thus systematically under-weighting first time voters, typically young people.
