Burcum: ‘You’ve got to have an answer for why [the U.S.] should stay together.’

There’s a reason I’ve highlighted these nations. They’re all represented on the main presidential tickets. Kamala Harris is an easy call: she represents the Left Coast. JD Vance, Greater Appalachia.

Walz and Donald Trump reflect a more hybrid type of affiliation, Woodard said in an interview. Walz, a native Nebraskan, grew up in the Midlands but governs a Yankeedom state. Trump is a native New Netherlander. While he’s not popular there, he has been embraced by the Deep South and Greater Appalachia and governed like a native of both.

For the 2024 horse race, Woodard said Walz was a more strategic pick, with his “dual citizenship” bolstering Harris’s Left Coast base and her need to win the northern “Blue Wall” states. Vance added little. His Greater Appalachia was already Trump’s strongest region. Trump has “already run the numbers there as high as they can go,” Woodard said.

But there are no guarantees, as Woodard notes. Democrats should be concerned that the Midlands, which typically acts as a “kingbreaker” when one political side gets too extreme, is no longer reliably playing that role. Iowa, for example, is perhaps the most Midlander state, and Trump has won twice there handily and is expected to win again.

What’s going on with the Midlands is a question that Woodard is scrutinizing, but he notes that its urban/rural divide is the sharpest of all the nations. Clearly, academics and journalists have work to do to better understand why.

Heavy lifting also lies ahead for the next generation of politicians. Woodard’s book is a reminder of what a fragile coalition the United States really is. Future leaders must bear this in mind. They will not only need to articulate policy but make a case for unity with wide appeal to the 11 nations.