Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
Can you help me understand how Bo Nix’s passer rating in the Raiders game was an excellent 117 but his QBR a terrible 26? It makes no sense to me.
— James, Denver
Hey James, there are many differences between passer rating and QBR. The latter is an ESPN-created metric that’s supposed to be more inclusive of game-specific conditions and adjusted for the quality of the defense. One possibility driving part of the difference: Nix was sacked three times in that game despite only being pressured on 16% of his drop-backs.
Nix’s QBR in the loss to the Chargers was more than double what he posted against the Raiders, but his rating was 84 compared to the 117.2 the week prior. And almost all of his production against Los Angeles was in the fourth quarter.
If you go by estimated points added per dropback, Nix was slightly better (.08 per) against the Chargers than against the Raiders (.04).
This is a classic stats vs. newer analytics conversation. Neither one is a perfect measure of quarterback performance, which is why we try to look at several different metrics. It’s also, of course, why there are so many circular arguments about quarterbacks from Nix to Brock Purdy to Justin Fields to Lamar Jackson (though he’s now past most of them).
Is it possible to escape Sean Payton’s doghouse once trapped inside? And will the Broncos rebound against New Orleans? And what needs to change in Denver’s game?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
That is a good question, Ed. Hard to say. “Doghouse,” naturally, is a subjective term and not one that Payton or really any coach would probably ever admit to.
The thing that we’ve seen from Payton and his staff the past two years is that they have very specific ideas for what players’ roles are. It’s not impossible to force the conversation about changing those roles — Jaleel McLaughlin did it last year and Tyler Badie seemed to be on his way to doing it this year — but for the most part, we haven’t seen players break the mold very often.
That could be because of conviction or hard-headedness by the staff, or it could be because most of the time they’re right. There are a few that come to mind that I wondered about, with Brandon Johnson last year being one of them. They were convinced he was just a guy. Not saying he’s a top-level receiver or anything, but he had real speed and seemed to show it with some regularity when he got the chance.
Of course, Marvin Mims Jr. is in this camp, too. Though with Mims, at some point this season he’s got to actually take advantage of an opportunity when he gets one in a game. So far, there have been a lot of close misses. Some of that can be on the quarterback, but he’s got to go get the ball and make the staff keep him on the field.
There’s lots of talk right now about how the Broncos should target a WR at the trade deadline. How can we afford to throw another WR on the roster after we let Tim Patrick walk? Of all the moves the Broncos have made over the last year, that’s the one that I’m still scratching my head about.
— Rachel, Denver
Yeah, Rachel, good question. Patrick has fit in perfectly in Detroit and he’s making plays for one of the most explosive, dynamic offenses in football. I really was surprised when the Broncos released him at the roster cutdown, especially because it only saved them $1 million on the cap. It wasn’t a money move. It was a roster space/team direction move.
I agree with you on the trade deadline talk, too. Our terrific columnist, Troy Renck, wrote last week that if the Broncos got to 4-2, they should make a big move. Totally understand the sentiment and they are indeed without a top-end player at that position. But they’re also really tight on cap space and have already done a fair bit of kicking money down the road. They’d have to do more in order to fit almost anybody onto the roster, let alone an expensive player.
If you’re going to be a young team, be a young team. Let’s see how much progress Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele and Mims can make over the rest of the season. Then you have a clear picture of what you need and what you don’t going into 2025 free agency and draft work.
Do you expect the Broncos to come out strong and aggressive on offense this week like they did against Tampa Bay? These sluggish starts are so annoying. Run, pass to the checkdown, incomplete pass, punt. Repeat.
And I’m not sure if you had a chance to see it, but CBS Sports had a replay of one of Bo Nix’s plays. It looked like they had three receivers out against the Chargers’ zone and a max protection at the line. Nix had no one to throw to when he rolled out left. What kind of a play call was that?
— Mike, Denver
Great questions, Mike. I wouldn’t be surprised at all. We crunched a bunch of the numbers regarding the Broncos’ slow starts in our coverage from Sunday’s loss to the Chargers and they are ugly. Really ugly. The lone beacon is that touchdown drive Week 3 against the Bucs. They liked the particular matchup and Payton also has a deep familiarity with Tampa coach Todd Bowles. He probably doesn’t know many better than he knows New Orleans coach Dennis Allen, his former coordinator. Of course, the inverse of that is true, too. That seems to me to set up for a curveball or two early.
As for your second question, there was a lot of that Sunday. Especially over the first three quarters, almost nothing happened on schedule. This is a pretty wild stat: Nix’s longest time-to-throw (snap to pass attempt) on the season before Sunday was 3.00 seconds against New York. The other four games he’d been between 2.57 and 2.84. Against the Chargers: 3.78 seconds, the longest for the week in the NFL by nearly a half second.
There’s a combination of factors at play between receivers not getting open quickly, Nix not seeing them or not having the confidence to let the ball fly and then also the productive way in which he can extend plays and buy time with his legs.
Hey Parker, are you going to check out Broncos O-line coach Zach Strief’s Port Orleans Brewery while you’re down in New Orleans to cover the game?
— Frank P., Parker
Great thought, Frank. Might have to try to make it work. Of course, New Orleans is one of the great food and drink cities in the country and in the world, so there are plenty of options. If you’ve got recommendations, email me. Please and thank you.
If Strief was giving tours, I’d for sure be there. But guessing the schedule is just a bit too cramped for that.
With Pat Surtain II out for a little while, what’s the secondary going to look like this week?
— Mark, Arvada
It’s going to be interesting to see how they play it, Mark. Forced to adjust on the fly during Sunday’s game, Denver had Ja’Quan McMillian play outside in base defense and then move into his normal spot in the slot when the team played sub. In those situations, Levi Wallace played outside and then reserve safety Devon Key became the team’s dime back.
The biggest question this week, assuming Surtain doesn’t play, is whether McMillian plays outside or only in the slot. Coordinator Vance Joseph and secondary coach Jim Leonhard have tremendous confidence in McMillian. In fact, in a story I wrote last week that ran Sunday, Leonhard said they could put McMillian outside, “and we don’t bat an eye. Most teams can’t do that.”
McMillian did not have his best game Sunday against L.A. and the Broncos will have to decide if it was just one of those days or if the bouncing between inside and outside impacted his play. But the trust is clearly strong and McMillian’s earned that with a calendar year straight of high-level play.
The other impact is that New Orleans could end up without both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, their two best receivers, on the short week.
So, it’s a chess match where the pieces and the exact approach may not be clear until kickoff Thursday night.
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