Broncos (5-4) at Chiefs (8-0)
When: Sunday, 11 a.m. MT
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Broncos-Chiefs series: Denver is 55-72 in 127 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos won 24-9 in the last meeting, on Oct. 29, 2023, in Denver, snapping a 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs.
In the spotlight: Kansas City’s third-down offense could be problem for Denver
When the Chiefs get into third-down situations, they hit another gear.
Kansas City has the best third-down offense in the league, converting 53.2% of its attempts in those situations this season. That success could create problems for the Broncos, who must keep star quarterback Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible on Sunday.
“They have been very good because they have been in third (and short) most of the time,” Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said.
The Chiefs have had 41 plays on third down with one to three yards to go. In those situations, they have gained a first down 25 times. Kansas City has recorded seven offensive touchdowns while averaging 74 yards on third down.
In the Chiefs’ thrilling 30-24 overtime victory over the Buccaneers, they were 12 for 18 on third down. All four of their touchdowns in Week 9 came on that down, including running back Kareem Hunt’s game-winning score.
Predictably, Mahomes has been one of the best in the league in those critical situations. He is seventh in passing yards (550) and tied for second in touchdown passes (six) while completing 67.6% of his pass attempts, according to Sports Info Solutions.
“They put their personnel in the right places to succeed,” cornerback Pat Surtain II told The Denver Post. “They got concepts for every coverage.”
Surtain added that tight end Travis Kelce, who recorded 100 yards on 14 catches against Tampa Bay, does a good job of finding soft spots in zone coverages. The addition of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins makes Kansas City even more challenging to stop.
Hopkins had eight catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns in his second game since getting traded from the Titans. His highlight-reel 35-yard catch in the second quarter came on third-and-8.
“He understands what they are trying to do schematically on third down,” Surtain told The Post. “When you (have) new guys coming in and understanding the philosophy on third down, that’s what makes it tough to really stop them.”
The Broncos have been in the middle of the pack as a third-down defense. Denver has allowed opponents to convert 36.8% of its third-down attempts — 16th in the league. The Broncos have given up five touchdowns on third down, with four coming through the air. Even though Denver has a relatively low blitz rate of 28.6% on such plays, they have generated 48 pressures — third-most in the league, according to Next Gen Stats.
“Who can win (on) third down? That’s the game we have to play on Sunday,” Joseph said.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has more rushing touchdowns (four) than Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime combined. Denver’s trio of running backs only have three touchdowns, two coming from Williams. Kansas City has allowed five touchdowns on the ground and 3.7 yards per carry — second-fewest in the league. Edge: Chiefs
When Broncos pass
Nix has thrown for at least 200 yards in four of the last five games. Meanwhile, wide receiver Courtland Sutton has had 100-plus receiving yards in back-to-back games. The Chiefs haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw for at least 300 yards in a game this season. Kansas City is 25th in sacks (17) and pressures (97) and middle of the pack in passing yards allowed per game (209.8). Edge: Chiefs
When Chiefs run
Veteran running back Kareem Hunt has the most touches (118) and scrimmage yards (465) by any player in his first five games with a team after being signed in-season in the Super Bowl era, according to Next Gen Stats. Denver has given up 105.3 rushing yards per contest in its last four games and just allowed its second 100-yard rusher (Derrick Henry) of the season. Edge: Even
When Chiefs pass
Despite the Broncos’ pass rush success, they will have a tough challenge against Kansas City’s offensive line. The Chiefs have allowed the third-lowest pressure rate (26.3%) while Patrick Mahomes has only been sacked 16 times. Denver defensive end Zach Allen is eighth in pressures with 38. The trade for DeAndre Hopkins has helped a receiving core ravaged by injuries and ineffectiveness. Edge: Chiefs
Special teams
Broncos kicker Wil Lutz has the fourth-best field goal percentage (94.7%) in the league. He has converted eight straight field goals. Kansas City’s Harrison Butker has converted 88.2% of his field goal attempts and is 2 for 4 from at least 50 yards. Denver has given up 7.9 yards per punt return. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Andy Reid is 53-15 against the AFC West as the Chiefs’ head coach. Led by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, Kansas City has given up less than 28 points in 29 straight games. Broncos coach Sean Payton has led his team to five wins in its last seven games. Even after a horrendous loss to the Ravens in Week 9, Denver is still in the thick of the playoff race, which is impressive given the team’s offensive deficiencies and 0-2 start. Edge: Chiefs
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 308.6 (25th) | 352.5 (10th) |
| Rush offense | 121.4 (15th) | 122.4 (14th) |
| Pass offense | 187.1 (27th) | 230.1 (10th) |
| Points per game | 20.3 (23rd) | 25.4 (10th) |
| Total defense | 295.2 (6th) | 293.6 (5th) |
| Run defense | 108.7 (9th) | 83.9 (3rd) |
| Pass defense | 186.6 (6th) | 209.8 (15th) |
| Points allowed | 17.9 (3rd) | 18.4 (4th) |
(Click here to see table in mobile.)
By the numbers
11: Career interceptions thrown by Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes against Denver.
1,472: Career receiving yards for Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce against the Broncos.
6.3: Yards per carry for Broncos rookie running back Audric Estime.
32.8: Rushing yards per game for Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
16: Touchdowns scored by the Broncos in the red zone.
Bet on it
Patrick Mahomes over 231.5 passing yards: Taking the over on Mahomes’ passing yards total is a solid bet. He has thrown for over 250 yards in two straight games, including a 291-yard performance against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. He has thrown for over 300 yards in three of his last four matchups against the Broncos. Travis Kelce has been on a roll, averaging 73.2 receiving yards in five games while DeAndre Hopkins already looks like a solid fit.
Bo Nix total passing touchdowns under 0.5: Nix hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in a game five times during his rookie campaign. He hasn’t recorded a touchdown through the air in two of the last three weeks. Kansas City’s defense is solid and has a chance to disrupt Nix’s rhythm in the pocket. If Nix scores a touchdown on Sunday, it’s because of his legs.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Chiefs 26, Broncos 13
Since the schedule was released in May this has clearly been the toughest part of the fall for Denver. And while Bo Nix and company match up better against Kansas City than they did against Baltimore last week, it’s still an uphill battle. The Chiefs defense is legit and likely to give Nix and the Broncos fits. Sean Payton said last week that the goal against really good teams on the road is to get the game into the fourth quarter and still be in it. Even that’s not usually good enough against Patrick Mahomes, whose mastery is on display again this season.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Chiefs 20, Broncos 13
I’m confident that Denver’s defense will have a better performance than last week. However, the Broncos don’t have enough firepower on offense to pull off an upset in Kansas City. Expect the Chiefs to rattle Bo Nix and make him uncomfortable in the pocket while Patrick Mahomes is going to make enough plays down the stretch to secure the win.
Troy Renck, columnist: Chiefs 21, Broncos 18
The Broncos last won in Kansas City in 2015 when Bo Nix was 14. Denver finally has a quarterback willing to stare down the Chiefs. But it is one thing to compete and another thing to defeat Kansas City. The Broncos must play keep-away and stop giving the ball away – looking at you Lil’ Jordan Humphrey. Patrick Mahomes has thrown a career-high 11 interceptions against the Broncos. He is not enjoying an MVP season, though he has improved dramatically with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. The team that wins on third down will win the game.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Chiefs 20, Broncos 17
Baltimore was rock bottom. And a wake-up call. The Broncos are healthier than a week ago — welcome back, James Abner “P.J.” Locke III — and hungrier, too, after getting boat-raced on national TV in crab country. Alas, Patrick Mahomes on one good ankle is still better than Bo Nix on two. The plus side? The Broncos will score more than the 14 they’ve averaged in their previous eight trips to Arrowhead. The downside? It still won’t be enough, as Magic Mahomes yanks the Chiefs’ collective bacon out of the fire yet again.
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