A voter drops off a ballot at an official drop box at the San Francisco City Hall voting centre on Nov. 4.Loren Elliott/Getty Images
A majority of Americans say that there are only two institutions they still have confidence in: the military and the police.
For a democratic society, it’s not a great sign.
These results come from a Gallup poll that annually measures American attitudes toward 17 major institutions. In this year’s survey, 61 per cent said they have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the military. Fifty-one per cent said the same about the police.
Confidence in the medical system? Just 36 per cent. Public schools: 29 per cent. Organized labour: 28 per cent. Banks: 27 per cent. Confidence in the presidency is 26 per cent, the criminal-justice system is 21 per cent, and newspapers and television news score 18 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively. Congress, the capstone democratic body of the world’s most important democracy, has the confidence of only 9 per cent of Americans.
The only other group with a positive rating is “small business.” But the local dry cleaner, the neighbourhood artisanal bakery and the guy who mows your lawn don’t really add up to an “institution.” As for the businesses that dominate the economy, Gallup finds they are looked upon with suspicion. Large tech companies are no more trusted than the banks, while “big business” is the third-least trusted institution in America – and equally disdained by Republicans and Democrats.
Americans have even lost faith in faith. The U.S. was once an outlier on this measure, but no more. Just 32 per cent have confidence in “the church or organized religion.”
In 1993, when Gallup started this survey, the average confidence level in American institutions was 38 per cent. That rose above 40 per cent in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but then steadily fell, hitting a new low of 26 per cent in 2023. (It was up slightly this year, to 28 per cent.)
If Donald Trump wins Tuesday’s presidential election, it will be because he represents, and has assiduously fed, this loss of confidence.
If Kamala Harris and the Democrats lose – and they stand a good chance of losing both the White House and Congress – it will be because they failed to address the loss of confidence, and contributed to it.
If there’s any one issue that could swing the election to Ms. Harris, it’s abortion. In 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the precedent of Roe v. Wade, deciding that there is no longer a right to abortion in the U.S. Constitution, and left the matter in the hands of state governments. That all happened because of Mr. Trump’s three appointees to the court.
For the past few months, Mr. Trump has been furiously backpedalling on abortion. He now presents himself as, in effect, the least pro-life Republican presidential candidate in decades. That’s because if any issue is going to cost him a second trip to the White House, this is it.
And in part because of abortion, the long-standing voting gender gap appears to have widened into a chasm. A recent NBC News poll shows Mr. Trump leading among men by 18 points, and Ms. Harris leading with women by 16 points – an unprecedented 34-point divide.
For Mr. Trump and the Republicans, the one issue that could deliver victory is the border.
Between the spring of 2022 and the spring of 2024, 5.1 million immigrants came to the U.S. The vast majority simply walked across the Mexican border and made an asylum claim.
The Democratic Party discovered this year, to its surprisingly great surprise, that most voters, including many otherwise Democratic-leaning voters, are not on the same page as the party’s progressive wing. Most Americans want both immigration and border control. Their attitudes are more subtle than simply being pro- or anti-immigration.
Just as Mr. Trump has tried to backpedal away from his record on abortion, and the desires of the most conservative members of his coalition, so Ms. Harris has backed away from her own previous immigration positions, and the views of her most progressive supporters.
Following in President Joe Biden’s footsteps, Ms. Harris has aggressively reversed course. Earlier this year, Mr. Biden used his executive authority to eviscerate his previous policies. Recent months have seen a dramatic reduction in the number of people crossing the southern border. Ms. Harris says if Congress passes these actions and more into law, she will gladly sign such a bill.
Just as Mr. Trump discovered on abortion, so Ms. Harris has learned on immigration: On some issues, America is not red or blue, but purple. Some traditionally Democratic positions are popular with Republican voters. Some traditional Republican concerns resonate with Democratic voters.
How many women who previously voted Republican will cast their ballot for Ms. Harris because of abortion? How many erstwhile Democrats will swing to Mr. Trump because of the border? The answers may decide the election, and the future.
