Broncos scouting report: How Denver matches up with Ravens and predictions

Broncos (5-3) at Ravens (5-3)

When: Sunday, 11 a.m. MT

Where: M&T Bank Stadium

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS

Line: Ravens -8.5

Broncos-Ravens series: Denver is 6-8 in 14 regular-season games dating back to 1996; the Broncos lost 10-9 in the last meeting, on Dec. 4, 2022, in Baltimore, and have lost three in a row against the Ravens.

In the spotlight: Vulnerable Ravens pass defense presents opportunity for Broncos

Browns quarterback Jameis Winston might not have won AFC Offensive Player of the Week if Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton didn’t let a game-sealing interception slip through his fingertips. Or if safety Eddie Jackson didn’t allow wide receiver Cedric Tillman to slip behind him for the game-winning touchdown catch last week.

The Ravens’ 29-24 loss to Cleveland, a 2-6 team, exposed Baltimore’s many flaws as a pass defense under first-year coordinator Zach Orr. Baltimore has allowed a league-high 291.4 passing yards a game and is tied with Jacksonville for the most passing touchdowns allowed (17).

When the Broncos travel to Baltimore on Sunday, the odds are not in their favor. They are 8.5-point underdogs in what head coach Sean Payton called their “toughest matchup to date.” But if Denver wants to pull off an upset, taking advantage of the Ravens’ pass defense could be the way to go.

“I’m excited for the challenge because these are the types of games that you go through, you play and they’re extremely (difficult),” Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix said. “They’re hard at the moment, but when you get out of them, you grow a lot as a player.”

The Ravens defense went through a major change in the offseason. Former defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald became the head coach for the Seahawks, and Orr, who was previously the inside linebackers coach and played three seasons in Baltimore, slid into his role.

Orr inherited talented returners such as All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, inside linebacker Roquan Smith and defensive end Nnamdi Madubuike, who had 13 sacks in 2023. The Ravens also drafted Clemson standout cornerback Nate Wiggins to help strengthen the secondary.

But the Ravens’ talent hasn’t translated to consistent success.

After Baltimore gave up the fewest yards per pass (4.7) in 2023, the defense has allowed 7 yards per pass this fall — sixth-most in the league. The Ravens have struggled to defend the intermediate passing game (downfield throws between 10-19 yards). They have allowed 102.1 yards on those pass attempts, while giving up seven touchdowns on passes for 20-plus yards, according to Next Gen Stats.

Ravens safety Marcus Williams hasn’t met expectations and was benched in Week 8. He has given up 10 catches for 211 yards, two touchdowns and a passer rating of 149.3. Smith hasn’t been good in coverage, either, at linebacker. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 24 of 35 attempts for 324 yards, two touchdowns and an interception with Smith as the nearest defender in coverage.

Orr told reporters that coverage and pass rush go hand-in-hand. It hasn’t been the perfect marriage this season.

Despite the Ravens being tied for fifth in sacks (24), they have struggled to provide consistent pressure on the quarterback. Baltimore has generated the eighth-lowest pressure rate at 29.7%. Denver’s offensive line, on the other hand, has allowed the lowest sack rate (3.6%) and eighth-lowest pressure rate (27.8%) this season.

“Right now, it’s not clicking as much as we needed to be,” Orr told reporters in Baltimore. “We got different (things) we are trying to look at to generate pressures, with blitzes and the four-man rush.”

Baltimore’s deficiencies could open the door for Nix to build off his performance against Carolina when he threw for 284 yards and three touchdowns to lock up the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month award.

While the Ravens have struggled in passing situations, they have been the best run defense in the league. This means Denver may have to lean on its passing game to keep up with quarterback Lamar Jackson and a Baltimore offense that’s had few problems putting points on the board.

Denver has struggled to consistently generate production in the passing game. Last week, however, was a breath of fresh air. Like the team’s Week 3 win at Tampa Bay, when Nix started the game with several downfield completions, the Broncos found a way to establish a rhythm early and carried it the rest of the way.

The Broncos hope they can have similar production in the coming weeks, starting Sunday against Baltimore.

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run

Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 17 carries for 44 yards last week against Carolina. It’s hard to expect Williams to have better numbers this weekend. The Ravens have the best run defense in the league, allowing 69.9 yards per game and 3.3 yards per attempt. Williams might serve better use in the passing game. Edge: Ravens

When Broncos pass

Nix has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game. On Sunday, he might have a shot. Baltimore has given up 300-plus passing yards in two straight games. If star cornerback Marlon Humphrey returns after missing the loss to Cleveland, that could be beneficial for Baltimore’s secondary. Denver wide receiver Courtland Sutton is hoping to build off his best performance of the season, totaling 100 yards on eight catches in the win over the Panthers. Edge: Broncos

When Ravens run

The Broncos have been strong against the run, ranking seventh in rushing yards allowed per game at 106.4. Baltimore will be Denver’s biggest challenge as a run defense. Jackson and running back Derrick Henry have been a lethal one-two punch in the backfield. Henry has a league-best 946 rushing yards while Jackson has 501 yards on the ground. Edge: Ravens

When Broncos pass

Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph praised Jackson for his growth as a passer. But against Baltimore’s wide receivers, the Broncos secondary, led by cornerback Pat Surtain II, should be able to hold up. Surtain and nickel cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian have each given up a passer rating between 70 when targeted. It will be interesting to see how Denver defends Baltimore tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. That’s where the problems could lie. Edge: Ravens

Special teams

Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has lost a step. The 7-time Pro Bowler has converted 76.5% (13 for 17) of his field goal attempts. He is 2 for 5 on attempts from 50-plus yards and 4 for 5 between 40 and 49 yards. Broncos kicker Wil Lutz, on the other hand, has been efficient. He is 17 for 18 (94.4%) on field goal attempts and 7 for 7 between 40 and 49 yards. Edge: Broncos

Coaching

The Ravens should have a better record than 5-3, as losses to Kansas City, Las Vegas and Cleveland could’ve been avoided. While the Ravens remain an elite offense under coordinator Todd Monken, their defense under Orr has had its fair share of issues. Denver’s defense has remained stout under Joseph. Meanwhile, Sean Payton is starting to lean on what works best for Nix and the offense. The past two games were well-coached by Payton. Now it’s time to see what he can do with this group against a Super Bowl contender. Edge: Even

Tale of the Tape

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By the numbers

8: Passing touchdowns for Broncos QB Bo Nix.

38: Pressures for Broncos DE Zach Allen.

15: Red zone touchdowns by the Broncos.

422: Receiving yards for Ravens WR Rashod Bateman.

946: Rushing yards for Ravens RB Derrick Henry.

Bet on it

Nix over 33.5 passing attempts: Nix is ninth in attempts (261) and has thrown at least 30 passes in a game five times. The model for success for the Broncos is striking a strong balance between the pass and run game. Denver might not be in a position to do so against Baltimore. Expect Nix to throw the ball quite a bit on Sunday, especially if the Broncos fall behind early.

Franklin over 20.5 receiving yards: Franklin has had trouble finding his footing as a rookie. Nix has tried and failed to hit his college teammate on multiple deep passes, with the ball either slipping through Franklin’s hands or slightly overthrown. Franklin has the speed to take advantage of the Ravens’ issues with explosive plays. It might be a gamble to take the over. But at the same time, he has a good chance of making a big play or two on Sunday.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Ravens 26, Broncos 17

The Broncos have done exactly what they’re supposed to so far and then some. They’ve beaten bad teams and taken advantage of breaks the schedule has thrown their way. They’ve also found a way to win three road games. That’s the recipe for a good start behind a dominant defense, terrific special teams and offense that’s done just enough. They’ll need more, though, the next three weeks. They can slow Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and company in ways that not many defenses can. Can the offense do enough to keep pace? That part still seems aspirational.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 27, Ravens 24

Troy Renck, columnist: Ravens 27, Broncos 22

The Broncos have played a Charmin-soft schedule, which means the wise guys believe they will need Kleenex after this one. Denver is a heavy underdog, facing a Ravens team ready to play bully ball. There is something about this Denver team that is different. The players have confidence, an edge. The Broncos won’t flinch, they will make Lamar Jackson one-dimensional, but Denver’s inability to connect on deep strikes will prove the difference. Denver will look back on this game as the moment it knew it could contend in the AFC, and turn it into future wins. But it won’t happen Sunday.