Nathan MacKinnon set a franchise record last season with 140 points and is nearly producing at the same rate this year, despite the Avalanche having an apocalyptic rash of injuries and availability issues.
The Avs are still a fantastic offensive team when he’s on the ice, generating great numbers of chances both at even strength and on the power play. But there is one noticeable difference through the first 11 games of this season.
The reigning MVP is shooting less.
MacKinnon has 38 shots on goal and 73 shot attempts this season. That’s 3.45 shots and 6.64 attempts per game. Last season, MacKinnon led the NHL with 405 shots on goal (4.94 per game) and was fourth in shot attempts with 692 (8.44 per contest).
“I just make the right play,” MacKinnon said. “That’s what I try to do.”
It’s certainly working for him. MacKinnon is tied for third in the NHL in points with 18, despite the team not having great shooting luck when he’s on the ice. He’s also on pace for 134 points, a year after collecting a franchise-record 140.
MacKinnon isn’t alone. Mikko Rantanen is also shooting less. Like, MacKinnon all of the underlying numbers still look strong and he’s tied for ninth in the NHL with 15 points. He’s also down about a half of a shot attempt and shot on goal per game.
“We do a good job of getting the puck in the o-zone and moving the puck around, but maybe sometimes we could shoot it a little more,” Rantanen said. “Especially like now when we lose a couple games and things are the same as when you’re winning. I think we could shoot a little more, but also you can’t shoot just to shoot. You still have to make the right play.”
It’s maybe most noticeable on the power play, but that’s also where the Avs continue to dominate. How Colorado is attacking and scoring goals with the extra man looks a little different this year, and one offshoot of that is MacKinnon and Rantanen aren’t firing away as often from the flanks.
The Avs are third in the NHL in power-play proficiency at 35.1% and are tied for the most goals scored with 13. MacKinnon and Cale Makar co-lead the NHL with nine power-play points.
MacKinnon has more points than shots (eight). Rantanen does as well (seven points, five shots).
“Most of the teams are playing a diamond now on the penalty kill,” Rantanen said. “Usually the flanks are taken care of, and maybe there’s more room in the middle. Against a push-down PK, the flanks are going to be more open. Maybe from that, we don’t get as many one-timers with Nate, and we can expose more in the middle or the net front.”
While MacKinnon and Rantanen typically start on the flanks in Colorado’s 1-3-1 setup, the fluidity of where everyone is on the ice is part of the club’s dynamism with the extra man. And when a team focuses on trying to take away MacKinnon or Rantanen, that will leave space for others.
Ross Colton and Ivan Ivan have combined for six power-play goals from the bumper position. Colton also scored four times at even strength while playing next to MacKinnon and Rantanen.
“I think that’s a credit to them — they can do it so many different ways,” Casey Mittelstadt said. “That’s probably the most impressive thing is you take one thing away and they immediately do the other. That’s what makes them great players. I’m sure they’ll see something else soon and the shots will open up and they’ll be ripping it again.”
Having a player like Colton or Ivan to shoot in the middle of the 1-3-1 clearly can be effective. When Jonathan Drouin returns and likely slides back into that spot, he offers a different element. He’s great at manipulating the space in the middle of the ice, either pulling a defender away from a shooting lane or opening up passing windows.
MacKinnon and Rantanen love to set up each other for one-timers through the middle of the ice, but that hasn’t been available as often without Drouin. So they make the right play, but it looks different than before.
Just as Rantanen noted, the Avs’ big guns will look to shoot more at times when the team is slumping. MacKinnon had a season-high nine shots on goal, 15 shot attempts and the overtime winner against Anaheim, when Colorado was 0-4 and desperate for a win.
Avs coach Jared Bednar said both of his top players and the Avs as a team need to shoot more at times, and also need more traffic in front of the opposing goalie. Just as Drouin’s return can help open space on the power play, getting Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin back could help with net-front traffic in a big way.
“There’s some things that we’ve been talking about. (It’s) too selective for me,” Bednar said. “I get really careful about critiquing some of the things they do offensively because in order to make some of the really nice plays, you’ve got to play a risk/reward game.
“There’s a couple things I think they can do better, and our team can do better, to capitalize more from the expected goals we are creating.”
Footnotes: Forward Matt Stienburg was suspended two games after his illegal hit Wednesday night on Tampa Bay defenseman Erik Cernak. … Bednar said the Avs expect Nichushkin to be allowed to practice with the team ahead of his official reinstatement from Stage 3 of the NHL-NHPA player assistance program. He’s currently skating on his own. Bednar also said Nichushkin believes he’ll be ready to play almost immediately after being reinstated, which can happen in mid-November.
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