New Mexico (3-4, 2-1 in MW) at Colorado State (4-3, 2-0 in MW)
When/where: 3 p.m. Saturday/Canvas Stadium
TV/Radio: Altitude Sports/Rams Radio Network
BetMGM Line: CSU +7.5, O/U 65.5
Weather: 74 degrees, partly cloudy
Three storylines
Slowing the Lobos: New Mexico’s offense is explosive. The Rams must find a way to defuse it. Last week, the Lobos outscored Utah State 27-7 over the final 25 minutes en route to a 50-45 shootout victory. A week prior, UNM beat Air Force 52-37, marking the Lobos’ first back-to-back 50-point games in 108 years. So the Lobos have scored 50-plus points in three straight going back to a 50-40 win over New Mexico State. UNM boasts a top-20 offense in scoring (37.4 points per game), rushing (218.9 yards per game) and total offense (470.3 yards per game). The Rams’ defense, especially its secondary, was vulnerable in the second half of a 21-13 victory at Air Force last Saturday. The Rams must find a way to slow receiver Devon Dampier, who grabbed 10 passes for a career-high 156 yards at USU.
Run to daylight: If CSU can run the ball as it has been, it should win. The Rams’ running game has made a 180-degree turn. Last season, the Rams averaged just 92.2 yards rushing per game — ninth-worst in the nation. The Rams have nearly doubled that output this season, racking up 180.6 yards per game. Anchored by center Jacob Gardner, the offensive line has been opening big holes for running back Avery Morrow, who’s rushed for 100-plus yards in four straight games. He should make it five against a UNM rushing defense that is yielding 240.1 rushing yards per game, the third most in the nation.
Streaking: The Rams, tied for the lead in the Mountain West Conference and playing for their first bowl appearance since 2017, must keep winning the games they should win. Saturday’s game qualifies as that kind of game. However, the Lobos have been snapping losing streaks of late. They had lost five straight to Air Force before beating the Falcons. They had lost seven straight to Utah State before beating the Aggies. But now comes the hard part: UNM has lost 12 straight games against CSU, and the last time it won in Fort Collins was in 2006.
Predictions
Patrick Saunders, sportswriter: CSU 41, New Mexico 21
The Rams will cut out the mistakes that prevented them from blowing out Air Force and they’ll control this game from the outset. Don’t be surprised if CSU rushes for close to 250 yards at Canvas Stadium. And don’t be surprised if its running game sets up some big-yardage passes from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi to Caleb Goodie, who made a sensational one-handed grab and turned it into an 85-yard touchdown reception vs. Air Force.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: CSU 35, New Mexico 31
Ah, Bronco Mendenhall, CU’s current football coach in an alternate timeline and another universe. The Lobos have already forged an identity as a wacky, wide-open team that can score on anybody … and can’t stop a soul. They’re the anti-Air Force, a bunch who’ll dare Jay Norvell and CSU to engage them in a track meet. Don’t take the bait. If the Runnin’ Rams don’t rush for 220 on these guys, they ain’t trying. And after a fourth quarter at Air Force left some CSU fans grumbling about game management again, they really, really need to try.
Kyle Newman, sportswriter: CSU 34, New Mexico 20
The Lobos are riding a three-game win streak, having scored 50 or more in each of those victories, but the momentum stops here. Avery Murrow runs for over 100 yards for a fifth straight game, helping CSU get out in front early and run their win streak to 13 over UNM. Meanwhile, a few takeaways by the Rams’ defense allow it to quell some of the Lobos’ firepower on that side of the ball and pull away in the second half.
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