OTTAWA — Justin Trudeau and his closest advisors were weighing options for how to deal with the biggest threat to his leadership to date in what some MPs say will amount to a caucus showdown Wednesday, but others predicted would fade in the face of Trudeau’s determination to stay.
Trudeau, his most senior officials and trusted ministers believe the prime minister retains the confidence of a majority of his 152-member caucus. But with more than 20 MPs having signed a formal protest letter about his leadership, as the Star has reported, they also concede the situation is fluid, and nothing is off the table.
A cabinet shuffle is still in the offing in order to replace four ministers who won’t run again. A shuffle is not scheduled for this week or next, according to one senior source. According to other sources, the prime minister and his team have discussed new roles in government with some MPs — carrots that could quell dissent.
Some of the possible options to confront the complaints carry more risk than others.
A secret ballot, if won massively, could be a powerful way to shut down dissent. Or it could embolden many more than the group that’s already signed the letter to express a view Trudeau should go. A handful of Liberals who have not signed the letter have told the Star, on condition they not be identified, that they would like to see Trudeau step aside, believing the party cannot win with him remaining.
There is no formal mechanism for a secret ballot to test Trudeau’s support inside caucus. That’s because Liberal MPs never adopted the Reform Act rules that allow a secret caucus ballot to test confidence in a leader. That was how Conservatives tossed out their embattled leader Erin O’Toole in 2022, for example.
Another option, according to another source, is that Trudeau could call for a standing vote, calculating that many internal critics might not wish to put their opposition on public display.
One option has apparently been discounted. According to an official, the prime minister’s team does not plan to stack the lineup at the microphone in caucus, but will encourage his critics to air their grievances. The prime minister’s team has been working the phones to solicit statements of unity as well.
It’s not expected that Prime Minister’s Office or Liberal Party staff will lay out long-promised plans for electoral strategy.
In advance of Wednesday’s meeting that several several government staffers admitted is a critical one for the prime minister and his party, Trudeau’s cabinet solidarity held.
Liberal cabinet ministers emerged after huddling with Trudeau behind closed doors, in a meeting that ran nearly two hours overtime, to unanimously pledge support for him to stay on as Liberal leader and chide would-be caucus rebels for airing concerns publicly.
Several suggested that a wave of caucus dissent, or the letter, does not exist, or that the grumblers “lack courage,” or that they should keep their opinions inside caucus.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller challenged MPs with concerns to voice them directly to Trudeau. “I think they have to express themselves to his face,” Miller told reporters. “And not do it sort of in hushed tones,” adding in French that colleagues who are saying things in secret in the hallways “lack courage.”
Miller, a friend of Trudeau’s who said Liberals can win re-election under him, suggested the dissenters will not carry the day.
“I think what you’ll see is that the vast majority of caucus and cabinet, the entirety of cabinet, is behind him,” Miller told reporters.
Other ministers rushed past reporters, or faltered in replying too quickly as Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne did when asked if he encouraged the prime minister to stay on as leader during the meeting. “No,” he replied.
Pressed further about why he did not, Champagne said he misunderstood the question and said, “So, the prime minister is the prime minister. The prime minister is the leader of the Liberal Party and the prime minister is going to lead the Liberal Party in the next election. That’s very simple.”
Trudeau didn’t take questions from reporters, leaving his ministers to describe his mood.
“I’m not aware of a caucus revolt,” said Defence Minister Bill Blair, who said Trudeau is “very focused on the work that we are doing and the work that we have yet to do and he’s very, very positive, and his team is with him.”
“What’s this supposed letter?” said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault. “I have not seen the letter and I have not signed the letter, full stop.”
Boissonnault added, “Anybody who has ever bet against Justin Trudeau is sorry they made that bet the next day.”
Marci Ien, minister for women and gender equality, said she would not characterize dissenters as lacking courage to come forward. “Cowardly is a big word to use,” she said, “I wouldn’t call it cowardly.”
But Ien and Emergencies Management Minister Harjit Sajjan stressed the Liberal party is one that accommodates many viewpoints, and that MPs with complaints will be free to air them on Wednesday.
BC Liberal MP Ken Hardie said Tuesday that the party has navigated tough and divisive discussions before, using the war in Gaza as an example, and there’s no reason to assume it couldn’t resolve the issue.
Toronto MP Nate Erskine-Smith said he hoped there would be finality after Wednesday’s meeting, but noted that further complications would come regardless of the outcome.
Meanwhile, Trudeau’s political rivals appear to be enjoying the prime minister’s internal struggles.
Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet told reporters he is sticking to his Oct. 29 ultimatum to have the minority Liberal government agree to demands to spend more on seniors’ pensions and exclude the dairy sector quota system from international trade negotiations, or else he’ll vote with Conservatives non-confidence in the government.
“There is nothing happening in this government. It is being eaten from inside and being attacked from outside, and nothing is happening,” said Blanchet. “The whole story now is what will Justin Trudeau, superstar, do in the coming days. There’s no management of Canadian affairs, and that is a problem.”
— With files from Alex Ballingall
