Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appears as a witness at the federal inquiry into foreign interference in Ottawa on Oct. 16. Some of the Prime Minister’s Liberal MPs are trying to tell him is that part of the Trudeau magic is gone now.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
There was a time when many Canadians rooted for Justin Trudeau. It was the thing that won elections for the Liberals.
That was true in 2015, when he first won power promising an open, hopeful government. It was still true in 2019, despite the SNC-Lavalin affair and a blackface revelation. Many Canadians just didn’t want to think badly of him. Even in 2021, when the Liberals turned to sharp wedge politics, he had enough goodwill to eke out a win.
But the thing that some of the Prime Minister’s Liberal MPs are trying to tell him is that part of the Trudeau magic is gone now. Ordinary Canadians keep walking up to them, they’re fed up with him.
Policies are one thing. But people aren’t rooting for Mr. Trudeau any longer. And it seems like the Prime Minister is the last to know.
Maybe that critique is so personal that it is hard for Mr. Trudeau and his inner circle to hear. Perhaps it’s part of the reason why many of his MPs grumbled but were unwilling to confront him. Now it is why Liberal MPs say a sizable contingent are preparing this week to press him to leave.
Political leaders always see their personally popularity wane after many year. But it is particularly damaging for the Liberals because the thing that gave the celebrity PM electoral magic seems to have turned toxic.
The Prime Minister’s defenders argue that he’s still the best choice to lead the party into the next election because he is a good campaigner. But that’s a bit of a misnomer.
It is true that Mr. Trudeau is a good campaign performer. He enjoys the hustings and it shows. He’s particularly good when he interacts with one person he meets, or a small group, and a clip of it gets on to social media or TV. He’s charismatic and energetic. He’s been better at bringing magical to those moments that than any potential successor ever will be.
That’s invaluable as long as enough people want to hear more from Justin Trudeau. It could be a liability when they don’t.
And the truth is that over all, his last two election campaigns have been lacklustre. He didn’t do a good job of articulating an incisive message that told voters why they should re-elect his Liberals.
The party’s campaign appeals in 2019 and 2021 came across as a mishmash. The titles of the last two election platforms, “Forward” and “Forward for Everyone,” reflected the generic call for more of the same.
In both campaigns, the Liberals ended up pretty much where they had been in Nanos Research opinion polls at the outset. Things happened in between – the Liberals dipped and clawed their way back – but they were not triumphant campaigns. And in those days, Mr. Trudeau consistently enjoyed better approval ratings than his Conservative rivals, Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole.
In 2021, Mr. Trudeau had enjoyed a bump from his handling of the pandemic and was seeking to regain a majority government – but stumbled at the outset because he couldn’t explain why he was calling an early election. The Liberals squeezed back into power because of strong ground organization and residual goodwill; even Conservative campaign strategists privately marvelled at the resiliency of Mr. Trudeau’s appeal.
Now, he isn’t just way behind in the polls. Many of his MPs fret that he still hasn’t articulated a new message to turn that around. But what really worries some is the feeling that Mr. Trudeau’s personal goodwill, the fairy dust that one made the difference, is gone.
In private, they tell stories of being approached by one-time supporters who now blame Mr. Trudeau for everything from gas prices to their own health issues. The few MPs who have spoken out in public have described that kind of feeling.
“They’ve tuned him out, and they want him to go,” Charlottetown MP Sean Casey said in a CBC News interview last week.
The first Liberal MP to publicly call for Mr. Trudeau to quit, Wayne Long of Saint John-Rothesay, said last week he thinks that sentiment is now pervasive, intense and directed at Mr. Trudeau himself.
“I’m not saying it’s fair,” he said. “But it’s personal. And it’s everywhere.”
