Several years ago, I published my expectation that this bull market will likely take us to the 5350-6000SPX region before it ends. And, while there is some potential that it can be a bit higher than that, there is no question in my mind that the longer-term trend is concluding, as I have written and explained in prior articles.
Yet, the trend is now so engrained in most investors’ and analysts’ minds that I am starting to see some commenters and analysts poke fun at my work again. Well, based on history, it means I am likely to be proven right again, as the sentiment has now turned decidedly bullish enough to form the long-term top that I expect in the S&P 500.
Moreover, while we are not quite there yet in the market, I am also seeing that we are approaching a major top in gold in the coming 12-18 months, which is my general guestimate on the timing right now. Rather, I am more focused on when the structure of the current gold rally completes, at which time I would expect a major top to be struck in gold too.
But, we are not there just yet. And, again, my downside target seems to be in the $1,000-$1,200 region when this multi-year correction begins, with a smaller probability pointing down as low as the $300-$500 region. Again, this lower target is a much lower probability at this time.
I am going to conclude with a suggestion to all who read my work. If you choose to retain a superficial view of our work, then you will always view it as saying the market is either going to go up or down. However, if you take a more mature approach, and delve a bit deeper into the specifics of what we do, then it will open an entirely new world to you in your view of market mechanics.
It will likely forever change your perspective on how the market works. And, you will likely not be surprised by any major market moves, as most moves are quite foreseeable, at least from a probabilistic perspective.
Beyond Bull and Bear: Navigating the Market’s Grey Areas
Sadly, investors today are way too superficial in their thinking. They view their world as either black or white, whereas most of life occurs within the grey. Yet, despite the world mostly occurring within the grey, most investor’s desire is to only be fed black or white perspectives in the analysis they read. Most never realize that such desires will never be able to assist them in their long-term goals in the non-linear-based financial market.
You see, the great majority of analysts you may read either take a constant bullish view (the perma-bulls) or a constant bearish view (the perma-bears). But, as one of my members noted, I am focused on being perma-profit, and I do not care for perma-anything narratives.
As a member who has been with us for a decade noted:
“The number of different markets, i.e., , Metals, , , etc.., that you have absolutely nailed over the years is a legend.”
But, those who read my analysis with their black and white glasses securely in place come to a superficial conclusion that I am saying that the market is either going to go up or down. They fail to grasp that I provide very specific levels to watch in the market which will define the path the market will take.
And, I have seen no other analyst with our track record over the last 13 years, nor one that has provided that type of specific guidance. And, do you really believe that almost 9000 investors worldwide and almost 1000 money managers would be clients of ours if we were not truly providing more than superficial analysis?
“Your analysis seems to suggest that this current downturn is temporary and that the bull market won’t truly end until we hit around 4000? That’s pure technical analysis without any regard for fundamental factors in the real world. The idea is absurd. We are not going to magically get there on the back of EWT.”
And, this is nowhere near the first time that my analysis has been called names. My first public market call was made back in the market on August, 22 of 2011:
“Again, since we are most probably in the final stages of this parabolic fifth wave “blow-off-top,” I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time.”
At the time, gold was in the midst of a parabolic rally, and the only discussion between analysts and investors at the time was centered around how far past $2,000 gold will take us. No wonder I was vilified for my expectation for a top in gold. And, even before we topped, when someone asked me in the comments section where I see this drop from $1,915 taking us, I outlined my view that we will likely see the $1,000 region. As we now know, gold topped at $1,921 and bottomed a little over 4 years later at $1,050.
But, if you understand how the common investor’s mind works, it is quite clear that an expectation of a market turn is going to be viewed as crazy or absurd when the current trend is certainly engrained within the minds of the masses. Yet, that is often when we see such turns occur.
